When we survey NCAA student-athletes about their expectations of moving on to professional athletics careers, the results indicate surprising confidence in that possibility. The reality is that very few go pro.

Estimated probability of competing in college football

Sources: High school figures come from the 2022-23 High School Athletics Participation Survey conducted by the National Federation of State High School Associations. College numbers are from the NCAA’s 2022-23 Sports Sponsorship and Participation Rates Report. These college numbers account for participation in college athletics at NCAA-member schools only.

High school-to-NCAA percentages were calculated by dividing the number of NCAA participants in 2022-23 by the number of HS participants in that same year. This assumes that high school and college rosters are turning over at roughly the same rate (e.g., both HS and college participation numbers include four classes of students, and both sets of teams turn over roughly one-quarter of their rosters each year). In prior versions of this table, more complex calculations were used to estimate the number of HS departures and open college roster slots each year; however, these more involved calculations did not lead to substantially different percentages than the simple calculation used currently. Given several potential confounds (e.g., multi-sport participation in high school, frequency of redshirt in NCAA Division I football that would lead to a 5-year rather than 4-year college track), these calculations should be considered approximations and not exact accounting.

The high school-to-NCAA divisional percentages were calculated by dividing the number of 2022-23 participants within each NCAA division by the total number of HS participants. For example, we estimate that approximately 3.6% of HS boys basketball participants go on to play at an NCAA school (Divisions I, II or III), but only 1.0% of HS participants do so at the Division I level.

As the high school figures account only for participants on high school teams and not those competing exclusively on club teams or similar, the true pre-college to NCAA percentages could be lower in some sports (e.g., ice hockey, tennis); see this page for sport-specific information regarding club and high school sport participation). Data for several sports (e.g., rowing, skiing, gymnastics) is not shown due to the low number of high school programs in those sports relative to non-scholastic pre-college participation opportunities.

Estimated probability of competing in professional football

• NFL draft data from 2023. There were 259 draft picks in the 2023 draft, all of whom were former NCAA athletes. NCAA to Major Pro figure calculated using these data (calculated as 259 / 17,156 = 1.5%).
• NCAA divisional breakdown of the 259 NCAA student-athletes selected in the 2023 NFL draft: Division I FBS (247), Division I FCS (10), Division II (2). The five football conferences with autonomous governance accounted for 206 of the 259 NCAA draft picks (SEC=62, Big Ten=55, ACC=32 [does not include Notre Dame], Big 12=30, Pac-12=27).
• We estimate that 3.8% of draft-eligible Division I athletes were chosen in the 2023 NFL draft (257 / 6,827). Calculating this by subdivision, 6.7% of FBS players were estimated to be drafted (247 / 3,705), as compared to 0.3% of FCS players (10 / 3,122). Narrowing further to the five Division I conferences with autonomous governance (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC), we estimate that 11% were drafted (206 / 1,839). 
• Additional professional or semi-professional opportunities exist in leagues such as the Canadian Football League, USFL, XFL and opportunities in other countries. Estimations for opportunities beyond the NFL are not included in our table.

Last Updated: April 1, 2024