When we survey NCAA student-athletes about their expectations of moving on to professional athletics careers, the results indicate surprising confidence in that possibility. The reality is that very few go pro.

Estimated probability of competing in men's college ice hockey

Sources: High school figures come from the 2022-23 High School Athletics Participation Survey conducted by the National Federation of State High School Associations. College numbers are from the NCAA’s 2022-23 Sports Sponsorship and Participation Rates Report. These college numbers account for participation in college athletics at NCAA-member schools only.

High school-to-NCAA percentages were calculated by dividing the number of NCAA participants in 2022-23 by the number of HS participants in that same year. This assumes that high school and college rosters are turning over at roughly the same rate (e.g., both HS and college participation numbers include four classes of students, and both sets of teams turn over roughly one-quarter of their rosters each year). In prior versions of this table, more complex calculations were used to estimate the number of HS departures and open college roster slots each year; however, these more involved calculations did not lead to substantially different percentages than the simple calculation used currently. Given several potential confounds (e.g., multi-sport participation in high school, frequency of redshirt in NCAA Division I football that would lead to a 5-year rather than 4-year college track), these calculations should be considered approximations and not exact accounting.

The high school-to-NCAA divisional percentages were calculated by dividing the number of 2022-23 participants within each NCAA division by the total number of HS participants. For example, we estimate that approximately 3.6% of HS boys basketball participants go on to play at an NCAA school (Divisions I, II or III), but only 1.0% of HS participants do so at the Division I level.

As the high school figures account only for participants on high school teams and not those competing exclusively on club teams or similar, the true pre-college to NCAA percentages could be lower in some sports (e.g., ice hockey, tennis); see this page for sport-specific information regarding club and high school sport participation). Data for several sports (e.g., rowing, skiing, gymnastics) is not shown due to the low number of high school programs in those sports relative to non-scholastic pre-college participation opportunities.

Estimated probability of competing in men's professional ice hockey

• NHL draft data from 2023 (source: hockeydb.com). There were 224 draft picks in the 2023 draft. Only nine players from NCAA rosters were selected in that draft (all from Division I teams). However, this is not indicative of the likelihood of going from a college team to a professional team due to the nature of the NHL draft, where players are typically selected prior to college enrollment. 
• In examining the subsequent hockey pathways of the 2023 draftees (hockeydb.com), College Hockey Inc. reported that 69 of the 224 were current student-athletes or committed recruits at NCAA schools. These numbers, although not fully comparable to those used in the other sports examined, were used to calculate an approximate NCAA to Major Pro percentage (calculated as 69 / 975 = 7.1%). Note that only a small subset of players drafted ever plays in an NHL game (e.g., of the 225 draftees in 2022, only five played in the NHL during the 2022-23 season). Undrafted college players may go on to sign contracts with NHL teams after completing college (those numbers are not part of the current NCAA to Major Pro calculation).
• In 2022-23, 32% of players on active NHL rosters played college hockey (all Division I), up from about 21% in the year 2003 (source: collegehockeyinc.com). Additionally, 66% of former college players in the NHL played at least three college seasons, and 27% played all four.
• College Hockey’s 2023 NHL Draft Guide further details the pathway from NCAA college hockey to the NHL.

Last Updated: April 1, 2024