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Estimated probability of competing in college athletics

Nearly eight million students currently participate in high school athletics in the U.S.  Approximately 530,000 compete as NCAA athletes, and just a select few move on to compete at the professional or Olympic level.

The table below shows the total number of high school and college athletes for each sport, along with the estimated percentage of high school athletes who go on to compete at the NCAA level.

Download the full report: Probability of Competing Beyond High School Figures and Methodology

High School Participants NCAA Participants Overall % HS to NCAA % HS to NCAA Division I % HS to NCAA Division II % HS to NCAA Division III
Men
Baseball 478,451 38,849 8.1% 2.4% 2.4% 3.2%
Basketball 537,438 19,213 3.6% 1.0% 1.0% 1.5%
Cross Country 240,201 14,787 6.2% 2.1% 1.7% 2.4%
Football 1,028,761 77,204 7.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5%
Golf 150,175 8,602 5.7% 1.9% 1.6% 2.2%
Ice Hockey 33,013 4,388 13.3% 5.0% 0.8% 7.5%
Lacrosse 111,108 16,030 14.4% 3.3% 3.2% 8.0%
Soccer 450,455 27,284 6.1% 1.4% 1.7% 2.9%
Swim & Dive 116,741 9,945 8.5% 3.3% 1.5% 3.7%
Tennis 158,306 7,785 4.8% 1.5% 1.1% 2.2%
Track & Field 604,983 31,278 5.2% 1.9% 1.4% 1.9%
Volleyball 77,287 2,933 3.8% 0.7% 0.8% 2.3%
Water Polo 21,289 1,156 5.4% 3.1% 0.9% 1.4%
Wrestling 259,431 8,309 3.2% 1.0% 0.8% 1.3%
Women
Basketball 373,366 16,668 4.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.8%
Cross Country 197,630 14,621 7.4% 2.9% 1.9% 2.6%
Field Hockey 52,962 6,456 12.2% 3.6% 1.9% 6.7%
Golf 80,970 5,733 7.1% 2.8% 2.0% 2.3%
Ice Hockey 8,601 2,888 33.6% 10.2% 2.1% 21.3%
Lacrosse 98,014 13,481 13.8% 4.3% 3.2% 6.3%
Soccer 377,838 29,959 7.9% 2.7% 2.2% 3.0%
Softball 344,952 21,646 6.3% 2.0% 1.7% 2.2%
Swim & Dive 140,711 13,259 9.4% 4.2% 1.6% 3.6%
Tennis 191,036 8,343 4.4% 1.5% 1.1% 1.9%
Track & Field 486,355 31,475 6.5% 2.8% 1.7% 2.0%
Volleyball 470,488 18,569 3.9% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6%
Water Polo 18,728 1,337 7.1% 4.4% 1.2% 1.6%

Sources: High school figures come from the 2022-23 High School Athletics Participation Survey conducted by the National Federation of State High School Associations. College numbers are from the NCAA’s 2022-23 Sports Sponsorship and Participation Rates Report. These college numbers account for participation in college athletics at NCAA-member schools only.

Methodology and Notes

  • High school-to-NCAA percentages were calculated by dividing the number of NCAA participants in 2022-23 by the number of HS participants in that same year. This assumes that high school and college rosters are turning over at roughly the same rate (e.g., both HS and college participation numbers include four classes of students, and both sets of teams turn over roughly one-quarter of their rosters each year). In prior versions of this table, more complex calculations were used to estimate the number of HS departures and open college roster slots each year; however, these more involved calculations did not lead to substantially different percentages than the simple calculation used currently. Given several potential confounds (e.g., multi-sport participation in high school, frequency of redshirt in NCAA Division I football that would lead to a 5-year rather than 4-year college track), these calculations should be considered approximations and not exact accounting.

  • The high school-to-NCAA divisional percentages were calculated by dividing the number of 2022-23 participants within each NCAA division by the total number of HS participants. For example, we estimate that approximately 3.6% of HS boys basketball participants go on to play at an NCAA school (Divisions I, II or III), but only 1.0% of HS participants do so at the Division I level.

  • As the high school figures account only for participants on high school teams and not those competing exclusively on club teams or similar, the true pre-college to NCAA percentages could be lower in some sports (e.g., ice hockey, tennis); see this page for sport-specific information regarding club and high school sport participation). Data for several sports (e.g., rowing, skiing, gymnastics) is not shown due to the low number of high school programs in those sports relative to non-scholastic pre-college participation opportunities.

Last Updated: April 1, 2024

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